Practical Applications of The Structure of a Machine-Built Global Macro Forecasting System

Abstract

Jiaqi Chen and Michael Tindall, both of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas , sidestepped the controversy surrounding automated model-building systems in their approach to developing their unique “theory-free” system.

In The Structure of a Machine-Built Global Macro Forecasting System , the authors explain how they used empirical investigation of model construction to develop their automatic model-building system, rather than starting with an existing theory.

Tindall explains that their system can produce forecasting models for foreign economies that don’t require users to have any prior knowledge of the institutional frameworks of those economies. “Obviously, the machine system should be of interest to global macro hedge funds since those funds, by definition, focus on the market effects of international macroeconomic data,” he points out.