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Practical Applications

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Practical Applications of Evidence That Analyst Forecasts Do Not Reflect Their Expectations

Haim A. Mozes
Practical Applications 7 (2) DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/pa.7.2.338
Haim A. Mozes
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Practical Applications Summary

In Evidence That Analyst Forecasts Do Not Reflect Their Expectations, published in the Winter 2018 issue of The Journal of Investing, Haim Mozes of Spring Mountain Capital, LP, presents a study of how the forecasting accuracy of sell-side analysts has changed over time, and concludes that analysts deliberately do not update their estimates with the best information as time gets closer to the earnings release date. While these findings are less relevant to investors with longer holding periods or investment horizons, they are very relevant to investors whose strategies rely on short-term trading around earnings surprises and the related market expectations. It has become more challenging to use analysts’ forecasts to determine what earnings expectations are already priced, and strategies based on exploiting earnings surprises have become more difficult to execute. Consequently, if investors cannot discern market expectations, they should forgo strategies based on short-term trading around earnings releases.

TOPICS: Fundamental equity analysis, information providers/credit ratings, performance measurement

  • The content is made available for your general information and use and is not intended for trading or other specific investment advice purposes or to address your particular requirements. We do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement, or other information provided any user of this publication. Reliance upon any opinion, advice, statement, or other information shall also be at your own risk. Independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision. Any arrangements made between you and any third party named in this publication are at your sole risk.
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Practical Applications: 7 (2)
Practical Applications
Vol. 7, Issue 2
31 Oct 2019
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Practical Applications of Evidence That Analyst Forecasts Do Not Reflect Their Expectations
Haim A. Mozes
Practical Applications Oct 2019, 7 (2) DOI: 10.3905/pa.7.2.338

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Practical Applications of Evidence That Analyst Forecasts Do Not Reflect Their Expectations
Haim A. Mozes
Practical Applications Oct 2019, 7 (2) DOI: 10.3905/pa.7.2.338
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